Power Rankings: The Last 16 of the World Cup
With the group stage completed, we can evaluate which members of the sixteen remaining teams in Australia and New Zealand look capable of winning the whole thing and which ones...don't.
1. Japan
Incredibly impressive all tournament thus far, the Japanese have scored 11 goals and are yet to concede. That kind of dominance wasn’t all that surprising against Zambia and Costa Rica, but to blank Spain 4-0 in a match where they were out-possessed 73%-23%, out-passed 782 to 158, and registered just five shots on target (while allowing just two) is one of the more remarkable World Cup performances in recent memory. Forward Hinata Miyazawa scored twice in the win, and is building a campaign that could see her contend for the Golden Ball if Japan make a deep run. Angel City’s Jun Endo has also been fantastic as an extremely versatile left wing-back. They play Norway next, who are lucky to still be here.
2. England
After an underwhelming start vs Haiti and a slog of a game vs Denmark, England finally look to be in gear after putting six past China to complete a nine-point group stage. The Lionesses have shown the important tournament ability to still get a result when they don’t play well, along with the capacity to absolutely obliterate teams when they do. The undisputed star of the show in the big win was Lauren James, who scored twice and assisted on three other goals. She can carry England deep into this tournament if they prove to continue to be near-impossible to break down defensively. They face Nigeria, who remain a tough team to judge.
3. Spain
Yes, they got absolutely battered by Japan. But for a game that went the way it did to finish with that scoreline is an outlier and it wasn’t as bad for Spain as the score would indicate. That said, this has been the problem with both the men’s and women’s Spain teams on occasion: sometimes, they look like they have absolutely no idea what to do with the ball when the other team simply allows them to have it. This team has all the attacking talent in the world to still win this thing, but they’re gonna need to figure out a way to break down a low block first. That probably won’t be a big issue vs Switzerland, who will be out of their comfort zone if they try to sit in defensively.
4. Netherlands
The Dutch looked solid if unspectacular against Portugal, mediocre but scored on one of their only real chances to draw with the US, and then much like England absolutely erupted in their final group stage game with a touchdown against Vietnam. That last match seems to have offered a training-esque opportunity for Lieke Martens, Jill Roord and Danielle van de Donk to develop more chemistry with fill-in striker Katja Snoejis. It also doesn’t hurt that Esmee Brugts appears intent on regularly scoring bangers. I still don’t think they’re as good as their 2019 vintage, but they’ve now shown their potential. They face South Africa next in what should be a very open and fun match.
5. Sweden
After getting a punch to the nose from South Africa, the Swedes haven’t looked back. They managed two goals to win that opening battle before blowing out Italy 5-0 and then dispatching Argentina 2-0 with a largely second-choice lineup. Their best weapon is clearly how dangerous they are from set pieces, particularly in the Italy win which featured several goals off corners. The question remains if they’re capable of creating much from open play, but they look generally solid at the back and you’d back the attacking trio of Aslani, Rolfo and Backstenius to pose a threat against anyone.
6. France
It’s been a very odd tournament so far for the injury-depleted and recently-rid-of-their-cancerous-head-coach French. The began with a 0-0 against Jamaica, which appeared at the time to be a perfect example of the struggles they would face. But then they out-dueled Brazil, who for some reason left Wendie Renard wide open on a corner and lost because of it, and then easily outpaced Panama in a wild 6-3 track meet of a game. They’re not their best selves, but they’re still damn good on their day.
7. USA
*Insert loud groan here* But seriously, what we do with this team?? The soccer is hideous, Vlatko Andonovski is out of his depth, world-class attackers can’t make much if any impact, Rose Lavelle is suspended for yellow card accumulation despite only playing half the group stage, and they look totally devoid of any ideas when they have the ball (I would highly recommend this piece by Kim McCauley at The Athletic who did an excellent job of attempting to make sense of all of this). So what’s the good news? The US have allowed just one shot on target in the tournament (it of course went in), and they’ve looked defensively solid both in denying teams opportunities and making goal-saving interventions when necessary. This is the deepest team in the world. Could they lose 3-0 to Sweden? Sure! Could they play the ugliest soccer you’ve ever seen for the next two weeks and win the whole thing? Yes!
8. Colombia
One of the neutral’s favorites so far in this tournament, they’re led by the equally precocious and awe-inspiring teenager Linda Caicedo who has scored twice, including one of the goals of the tournament so far, and her excellent attacking foil Mayra Ramirez who has never seen a loose ball she didn’t think she could win. This team is both aggressive and capable of exercising calm. I wouldn’t worry too much about the loss to Morocco, they didn’t need anything from that game anyway. But there is a legit question as to how far Caicedo can carry this team. She’s playing in her third world cup in a year (U17 and U19) and collapsed at training last week before then playing against Germany. She’s also already a cancer survivor at just 18-years-old. But she also might be the best player in the world.
9. Australia
So is Sam Kerr gonna play at some point or not? That is the question hanging over the co-hosts, who looked far from convincing at times the last two weeks but did the job of winning Group B with a dogfight of a 1-0 win over Ireland and a 4-0 blowout of Canada sandwiching a 3-2 loss to Nigeria. Caitlin Foord, Emily Van Egmond and Mary Fowler are a potent trio going forward, but this team’s spine behind them isn’t strong enough to make a deep run. I’ll favor them against Norway, but if this is going to be their tournament then Kerr is going to need to be much more than just a trojan horse trotted out in the press to say she’s fit. This is already developing into a ‘boy who cried wolf’ situation.
10. Jamaica
How about the Reggae Girlz!!! Perhaps the most unexpected team to reach the knockout stages, Jamaica are living by the eternal truth that you cannot lose if your opponent never scores. That said, a goal here or there wouldn’t hurt. They blanked both France and Brazil either side of a nervy 1-0 win over Panama, a game in which they lacked star-striker Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw. The Manchester City forward has been strongest as an asset out of possession, never running out of energy (insert Energizer Bunny joke here) and acting as a sort of one-woman press. The Swaby sisters have been excellent at center-back, and the collective fight of this team is inspiring. Their Round of 16 matchup is a classic unstoppable force vs immovable object game, as they’ll have to keep out Caicedo and Colombia if this fairy tale is to continue.
11. Nigeria
Another surprise entrant into this tournament’s second half, I know I wasn’t particularly impressed by Nigeria in their 0-0 draw with Canada to start things off. But since then, they’ve beaten the hosts and gotten another 0-0 draw with Ireland. The general lesson is that this team will struggle to break down teams that are inclined to play more physically and defensive, but are as dangerous as anyone when things open up. Asisat Oshoala is one’s of the players at this tournament capable of winning a game by herself, and Chiamaka Nnadozie showed with her penalty kick save on Christine Sinclair that she’s a keeper capable of rising to the occasion. Unfortunately, Nigeria are up against England next.
12. South Africa
While maybe slightly less unlikely given the lottery that was the second spot in Group G, Banyana Banyana have been a pleasant surprise and have brought plenty of entertainment with their combination of efficient attacking and at times porous defense. Racing Louisville’s Thembi Kgatlana is one of this tournament’s breakout stars, with two goals and two assists thus far. They’re matchup with the Dutch could be a crazy one, and I hope it turns into a track meet that sees double-digit goals. But even if they do pull another upset, you can only go so far when you’re this prone to defensive lapses.
13. Denmark
Have you been watching this tournament yet totally forgot Denmark existed? I get it! For one, almost all their games have been played at ludicrous times for American viewers. But for another, there’s just not much remarkable about them. They needed an 89th minute looping header to beat China, and scored on a penalty and with the last kick of the game vs Haiti. So from open play, they’ve produced next to nothing. Pernille Harder is a world class attacker and their gameplan is to get her on the ball as much as possible, but any top-level team will try to make the other nine outfield players beat them. There’s no evidence the Danes can do that.
14. Norway
Are they here? Yeah. Should they be? Absolutely not, but someone had to finish second in Group A I suppose. For the second tournament in a row, a team bursting with world class attacking talent and depth all over the pitch look to have absolutely no idea what the hell they’re doing. If it wasn’t for Canada, they’d be worth a shout for most disappointing team at this tournament. They did manage to score six goals vs the Philippines, but that was hardly a measuring stick. Ada Hegerberg picked up an injury ahead of their 0-0 with Switzerland and then was held out last game. You just can’t trust this team to put together a strong 90 minutes against anything better than average opposition. The reward for their sluggishness is a date with Japan.
15. Switzerland
While they may have finished above Norway in Group A, that’s not saying very much. After beating the Philippines 2-0, they proceeded to draw both Norway and New Zealand 0-0. Equally forgettable a team as Denmark, they struggle to do much of anything to make their games interesting one way or another. The glimmer of hope comes through the presence of individual talents like Ramona Bachmann and Ana Maria Crnogorcevic [sir-nuh-GORE-suh-vitch for the uninitiated]. However, those two might not ever touch the ball against Spain. The Swiss would not have gotten out of any other group in this tournament, let alone won it.
16. Morocco
Perhaps the most unbelievable inclusion in the knockout round, both because of their history and what it took to get them here, Morocco are the first Arab nation to ever reach this stage of a Women’s World Cup. After getting absolutely battered by Germany, they then ground out 1-0 wins against South Korea and Colombia (though the latter one got a lot calmer once both teams realized that scoreline was in everyone’s best interest). Germany fumbled the bag again and swung the door open for Morocco, who will now take on France. No matter the result of that match, they’ve already made history.
Round of 16 Schedule (all times US central time)
Saturday
Switzerland vs Spain, 12 A.M.
Japan vs Norway, 3 A.M.
Netherlands vs South Africa, 9 P.M
Sunday
Sweden vs USA, 4 A.M.
Monday
England vs Nigeria, 2:30 A.M.
Australia vs Denmark, 5:30 A.M.
Tuesday
Colombia vs Jamaica, 3 A.M.
France vs Morocco, 6 A.M.