The World Cup Starts Today!
The World Cup is underway in Australia and New Zealand, so given this was going to be my first (new) blog post I figured I'd write about it and give out some certain-to-be-wrong predictions
Hello and welcome to A Soccer Column, a place where I’m going to write about soccer and occasionally other things because I miss writing. See the ‘about’ page for more information.
Anyway, you may not have even been aware that there is a World Cup going on right now thousands of miles and 13-ish time zones away. This is a sort of primer for the tournament, I hope you enjoy!
*Disclaimer* I initially wrote all of this on Wednesday, and then New Zealand beat Norway and Sam Kerr got hurt. So this has been update to reflect those unexpected events.
The Favorites
USA
The betting favorites. The two-time defending champions. The team seeking to achieve the first ever World Cup three-peat, men’s or women’s. Yet, they don’t feel like a team poised to vanquish all comers like they did in France four years ago.
The injury list is extensive, and got much worse in recent months. In addition to the long-term injuries of Catarina Macario, Sam Mewis and Christen Press, the USWNT this year have also lost Mallory Swanson, who was arguably in the form of her life and one of the best players in the world at the time of the injury in April, and veteran captain Becky Sauerbrunn, for whom this would have almost certainly been her final World Cup.
Other fairly familiar faces have been left out. Chicago defenders Tierna Davidson and Casey Krueger were both on the outside looking in, while defensive midfielders Sam Coffey of Portland and Jaelin Howell of Louisville were never really given an audition for the team despite outstanding seasons so far in the NWSL.
Which brings us to Vlatko Andonovski, the head coach who is somehow on the hot seat despite being in charge of the favorite team to win. Many doubt he will continue as the coach, whether by his own choice or the ferderation’s, even if the US win the tournament. Following the resignation of Jill Ellis after the 2019 World Cup victory, Andonovski was handed the unenviable task of bridging the gap between the greatest generation of women’s soccer players any country has ever had and a crop of young, exciting stars rapidly emerging. He has been criticized for his failure to rotate the squad, to give young players opportunities, and to move on from some veterans. In his defense, he hasn’t always been in control of that. Carli Lloyd embarked on a retirement tour that felt like it lasted years, which hampered the ability to begin preparations for the next World Cup cycle right away. Megan Rapinoe looked way past her best for a couple years and continued to get call-ups, only to round into form in 2023 at age 38. Alex Morgan and Crystal Dunn both missed significant time due to maternity leave, and Julie Ertz combined that with injuries and a self-imposed sabbatical that only ended recently.
Other concerns are the fitness of Rose Lavelle, who hasn’t played in a soccer game in three months, and the fact that Andonovski has only selected two out-and-out central defenders in his 23-player roster (Alana Cook and Naomi Girma, who will play every minute they are physically able to).
So what’s the good news? This is still the most talented team in the world. Sophia Smith is poised for a global breakout tournament wherever she plays across the US attack after two years shredding NWSL defenses. Girma is quickly becoming one of the best center backs in the world. Trinity Rodman is incredible (if you’re hearing that name for the first time, the answer to your question is ‘yes’). And Lavelle has been training in a tank and shorts despite winter temperatures in Australia so maybe she’s just fine.
The US can win this tournament, but they may only go as far as coaching and fitness allow.
England
If you ask just about anybody on the other side of the soccer media pond, they will likely insist that England are the best team in the world and should be the favorites to win this World Cup after their triumph at the Euros and are the best team to ever play the sport. At their best, that might all be true. But the injury bug has bit England worse than the US. They’ve also lost a captain and defensive stalwart in Leah Williamson. Much like Swanson, their best attacker, Beth Mead, is also out of the tournament with a knee injury. Creative genius Fran Kirby is also unavailable. While the game has grown exponentially in England in recent years, the program does not have the depth that the US is blessed with.
Engalnd are good. Really good. They very may well win this tournament to officially crown themselves as the greatest footballing nation of all time despite only starting to care about the women’s game about five years ago. But they’ve been struggling to score goals leading up to the tournament and it’s not clear what coach Sarina Wiegman’s answer is going to be to that problem.
It really is a shame the world stage is being deprived of the best version of this England team, but they’re still pretty damn fantastic and should put on a show.
Spain
If you simply look at the squads on paper, you should maybe favor Spain to win this tournament. However! In a world where seemingly every women’s national soccer team is at war with its federation there is no more bizarre conflict than that between half of Spain’s squad (mostly the Barcelona contingent) and manager Jorge Vilda. Fifteen players were omitted from a squad earlier this year after they complained to the federation about Vilda’s coaching and training methods. Most of those players are back now, including two-time Ballon d’Or winner Alexia Putellas, but it’s safe to say the Spain camp is not a happy place.
The good news for Spain? They’re amazing at soccer. Powered by the Barcelona juggernaut that has taken the European game by storm in recent years, the midfield combo of Putellas and Aitana Bonmati should overpower just about everyone at this tournament. They also play in the traditional Spanish style, something that has been bewildering to some other top teams (see: America) whose styles are much more dependent on individual talent than team execution. The Spaniards have both in abundance, play some beautiful soccer, and can really only be stopped by themselves.
Germany
World Cups and Germany. Traditionally they go together, though the men’s team has really thrown a wrench in that recently. There are a lot of stereotypical things often said about German Football: efficient, powerful, disciplined, ruthless, etc. Those are all true of this team. They boast one of the best strikers in the world in Alexandra Popp of Wolfsburg, and have the best defensive midfielder in the world and one of the world’s best young players overall in Lena Oberdorf (for US observers, think prime Julie Ertz but slightly taller, faster, and a better passer…yeah).
They’ve been handed a pretty easy group, and should cruise into the knockouts. That said, they did lose to Zambia a couple weeks ago. This team has both a high ceiling and a low floor. They’ll be a tough out for anyone if they reach the knockouts, and I wouldn’t put too much stock in that recent blunder.
France
The only reason Spain get the title of most dysfunctional team at this World Cup is because France recently sort of got their shit together. After long-criticized former coach Corinne Diacre exiled team captain Amandine Henry, this spring saw a slew of other star players led by Wendie Renard and Marie-Antoinette Katoto retire/quit in protest. Well, after years of backing Diacre the French federation finally backed down at the thought of losing half their team. She’s been replaced by Herve Renard (no relation to Wendie), a veteran international coach on the men’s side mostly recently of Saudi Arabia (the only team to beat Argentina in Qatar!). He has done the obvious thing and brought back all the players who for one reason or another had left the picture.
The bad news? You guessed it, a bunch of them are injured. Henry and Katoto, who would have started in defensive midfield and at striker respectively, are both out. So is winger Delphine Cascarino, who would have been one of the players to flank Katoto in attack. The result is a France team that is far from their best. They should still be stout defensively, and Renard at 6-foot-2 is always a threat on set pieces, but their absences take them from a Grade A contender to win to something just a step below. They certainly possess the individual quality to win, but there’s just a bit too much else going on to really believe they’ll do it.
Australia
By the time you’re reading this, 80,000+ fans will have already packed into Stadium Australia in Sydney to watch The Matildas play their opening game against Ireland as World Cup hosts. They won 1-0, but the bigger news that star striker Sam Kerr will miss at least the first two games if not the entire group stage. There are a lot of expectations for this team, ranked 10th in the world as they embark on what could be a historic journey for the sport in the country.
When fit, Kerr is the obvious headline. Player of the Year winner in England’s Women’s Super League this past season while leading the line for Chelsea, Kerr is arguably the best all-around center forward in the world and entering what should be her peak World Cup at age 29. Kerr is good enough to win games on her own, but she won’t have to in this Aussie team. Which is particularly helpful given she won’t be there to help them get through the group.
Arsenal’s Caitlin Foord provides a superb attacking foil (and a very good option as a focal point in Kerr’s absence), while they boast a stout defense headlined by fullbacks Ellie Carpenter and Steph Catley. They also have one of the young stars to watch at this tournament in 20-year-old Mary Fowler, who has 10 goals in 37 games for The Matildas and was snapped up by Manchester City last summer. Fowler also stands to be the player who see their role most increase in Kerr’s absense.
Home field advantage is absolutely going to be a thing for Australia in this tournament, and in knocking them out will require superhuman concentration from any would-be opponent. There is an element of destiny about this team.
The Chasing Pack
Netherlands
Four years ago, the Netherlands reached the World Cup Final where they lost 2-0 to a Megan Rapinoe PK and a great Rose Lavelle solo goal. All indications at the time were that they were going to be a force on the global stage for years to come. And thus another team is limited by many things but particularly by injury. The Dutch have only one notable injury absence, but it is probably the most significant of any player not at this tournament: Vivianne Miedema. If someone wanted to argue that Sam Kerr isn’t the best striker in the world they’d likely argue for Miedema.
She, like so many others (including her girlfriend Beth Mead), has an injured ACL. The good news is she just returned to simple training exercises and will be able to play a part in the coming season for Arsenal. The bad news is that doesn’t help the Netherlands, who will lean heavily on veteran attacking midfielder Danielle van de Donk of Lyon who will be well complemented by Jill Roord of Man City in the middle. Lieke Martens is still here too, but the Dutch may not have the depth for a long run in this tournament.
Brazil
I feel bad having Brazil in this category rather than the first one, but they’re slightly too long of odds to put there. They also might just be too top-heavy. Debinha of the KC Current will put the attacking in attacking midfielder and is in fantastic form. As is Kerolin from the North Carolina Courage, but she’ll have Geyse of Barccelona and Nycole Raysla of Benfica to compete with for minutes up top. Oh and yeah Marta is back for her sixth World Cup.
If they are to have a problem it would be defensively, where they don’t quite post the same sort of quality and pedigree as they do in attack. They have the misfortune of being a group with France, but the fortune of a favorable third and fourth seeded teams that should see them progress without to much trouble.
Their group stage meeting with France will tell us a lot about this team, and maybe if they have enough to really make a run at this thing.
Norway
Ok so yeah that loss to New Zealand isn’t great! Despite that underperformance, Norway have consistently been over-performers in women’s soccer simply because they were lest sexist about it than other places by simply allowing women to play (it’s a low bar, I know). However, that wasn’t enough to avoid scandal as in 2017 their best player, then Ballon d’Or winning striker Ada Hegerberg, went on strike for unequal treatment between the men’s and women’s teams (a men’s team that can’t qualify for anything despite having Erling Haaland).
Hegerberg, a legend at Lyon, ended her international exile last year, and her return gives Norway a chance to be truly dangerous. The one-two punch of her and Barcelona’s Caroline Graham-Hansen is as good an attacking combo as you’ll find in this tournament. Chelsea’s Guro Reiten is also coming off her best professional season on the wing at Chelsea.
They are arguably an even more extreme example of Brazil: they can score goals, but can they defend well enough to progress deep into the knockout round? They start things off with the gift that is is Group A, meaning they have time to recover from that opening defeat.
Canada
Canada are the reigning Olympic champions. Thus, you’d expect them to be one of the favorites. However, they’ve struggled even more than the US to transition from one era to the next and may be in the lead for ‘team most disrespected by their federation’ based on the ludicrous statements and actions of Canada Soccer over the last couple of years.
Kailen Sheridan has been called the “best goalkeeper in the world” by her coach at Sand Diego Wave, Casey Stoney (biased but not without merit). Kadeisha Buchanan (Chelsea) and Ashley Lawrence (PSG) are two world class defenders. Julia Grosso and Jessie Fleming are elite in midfield.
But their strength is also their weakness: the most capped player and highest scorer in the history of international soccer, Christine Sinclair. Sinclair has 190 goals in 323 games for Canada, just an absolutely insane record. But at 40 years old, she doesn’t have the legs she once did and the team has to be build around her playing as a traditional #10 of sorts. The result is that creative midfielders have to be more defensive minded, and extra running is asked of the forwards to cover space.
Could Canada make a run? Sure! Could they flame out spectacularly? Yes. And if they don’t feel like playing for the shirt given all they’ve gone through with the federation, you wouldn’t blame them. Some things are more important than winning soccer games.
The ‘I Just Hope Everyone Has Fun’ Teams
Zambia and Haiti
So I’m going to group these teams together for a few reasons.
First, superb individual stars. Zambia’s Barbra Banda broke out at the last Olympics, capping her tournament with a hat trick against the Netherlands (don’t worry about how many goals they conceded, not important right now). She unfortunately still plays in China, where she destroys defenses, rather than at a higher level but she is everything for Zambia. Her most recent exploit was a ridiculous 90th-minute winner against Germany.
Meanwhile for Haiti, they have Melchie Dumornay who is on a rocket ship to global stardom. Two years ago she was playing in Haiti. This coming season, she’ll join perennial superpower Lyon in France. It’s been well deserved, as she has been the brightest on Haiti’s team of shining lights in what has been a dark period of natural disaster and tragedy back home. Broadcasters should put some sort of circle around her on screen during games because you won’t want to take your eyes off her.
Second, neither of these teams can play any defense. At all. Certainly not against elite competition. Bet the over every time. The only teams Zambia have shutout in the last two years are Botswana, Tanzania and Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, in the final round of CONCACAF qualifying, Haiti lost 3-0 to the US (which was favorable based on the game) and 4-0 to Jamaica.
Despite the lack of defense, both of these teams are incredibly underrated in terms of ranking (53 for Haiti, 77 for Zambia which is truly outrageous). They’re going to win a lot of fans at this tournament.
You need to watch every game these teams play at an hour you are willing to be awake. There will be goals, the games will be fun even if you know nothing about soccer
Predictions
Take these with enough salt to fill the Morton Salt Shed.
Group A
1. New Zealand
2. Norway
3. Switzerland
4. Philippines
Norway get their act together enough to get four points out of their next two games, and that opening 3 points proves enough for New Zealand to set themselves apart and come out as surprise group winners.
Group B
1. Australia
2. Ireland
3. Canada
4. Nigeria
Two teams dealing with issues with their federation stumble, as Canada turn out to be the tournament’s biggest disappointment (not unlike the men in Qatar but with obviously different levels of expectation). This could very well be the most evenly matched group in the tournament. Australia get the boost of huge crowds playing at home, Ireland spring a surprise and bounce back from their opening defeat.
Group C
1. Spain
2. Japan
3. Zambia
4. Costa Rica
Spain breeze through this group, as they’re just too good for even their level of disfunction to really matter. Zambia score a ton and concede even more, and Japan just edge the Copper Queens into second spot.
Group D
1. England
2. China
3. Denmark
4. Haiti
England look like we expect them to, and China play some excellent tournament soccer and just eke ahead of a Denmark team that’s going to ask too much of Pernille Harder. I love Dumornay and can’t wait to watch her at this tournament, but Haiti won’t be able to stop anybody from scoring.
Group E
1. USA
2. Netherlands
3. Portugal
4. Vietnam
Straight chalk here. The US for all their concerns proves to be a step above a depleted Dutch side. Portugal continues to show their promise as a potential women’s powerhouse but they’re not there yet.
Group F
1. Brazil
2. France
3. Jamaica
4. Panama
France are depleted to an extent that I think it’s going to take them some time to figure out what their best team is in this tournament. Brazil prove to be an offensive machine in the group stage and take top spot. Sorry, CONCACAF, but you just got a tough draw here.
Group G
1. Sweden
2. Argentina
3. Italy
4. South Africa
Probably the weakest group of the tournament, the Swedes’ experience shows through as they take care of business. Argentina vs Italy should decide second place, and it’s a coin flip but I’m going with a little World Cup fairy dust hanging around from Qatar.
Group H
1. Germany
2. Morocco
3. South Korea
4. Colombia
Speaking of World Cup fairy dust, Morocco! They’ve loaded up with dual nationals ahead of this tournament and are definitely a better team than their lowly 72nd world ranking (behind the likes of Fiji and Equatorial Guinea) suggests. Colombia stumble, South Korea just fall short.
KNOCKOUTS
Ok these are pretty meaningless because they require me acing the group stage so I’ll run through these quickly.
Round of 16
Japan over New Zealand
USA over Argentina
Spain over Norway
Sweden over Netherlands
Australia over China
Brazil over Morocco
England over Ireland
Germany over France (Yep, ouch)
Quarterfinals
USA over Japan
Spain over Sweden
Australia over Brazil
England over Germany
Ok, a quick check in at this point: the upper half the bracket is certainly easier and the US and Spain should both make that semi. Bottom half is brutal and I think the Aussies ride the wave with the return of Kerr as an added boost.
Semifinals
Spain over USA
The US’s run ends. There is still no World Cup three-peat. A fully healthy US team I think repeats, but that combined with poor coaching decision-making ends up doing them in.
Australia over England
Likewise for England, this isn’t quite the team they won the Euros with and they just don’t quite have enough. This tournament proves to be for Australia what the Euros were for England
Final
Spain over Australia
They’re just too damn good, disfunction and all. They shut down Sam Kerr and smother the Aussie party, winning their first women’s World Cup.
Golden Ball: Alexia Putellas, Spain. If she won the Balon d’Or while hurt she’s a shoe-in to win this if Spain win.
Golden Boot: Sophia Smith, USA. I think Smith gets at least 3 or 4 vs Vietnam and that proves hard to overcome, as this is an award likely won in the first three games.
Golden Glove: Mary Earps, England. I don’t see England conceding much of anything even if their attack doesn’t run smoothly.
Best Young Player: Mary Fowler, Australia.